Whole Earth Forecaster         |     home
Economics   |   The Stock Market    |   Weather   |   Behavior   |   Natural Disasters   |   The Environment  
Evidence   |   Bibliography   |   Products    |   The Berg Timer Method   |   Contact Me  | Your Forecasting Service

 Simplify, simplify. --- Henry David Thoreau (1817-1862) 


JustGoodTiming's
Market trading systems

Before we get started, here's all the systems I've developed which continue to generated reliable and profitable signals.
I'd be happy to answer any of your questions if you'd contact me at bergtimer@hotmail.com.

System
Type
Basis
Target Pts
Stop Pts
Drawdown Pts
Screen Watch
Judgment
Market(s)
Chart Scale
Programmable
Price
ADX I
scalp/position
technical MACD
2 plus
2
5
medium
no
stock futures
5 min
yes
$195
ADX II
scalp/position
technical MACD
2 plus
2
6
medium
no
stock futures
1 min
no
$195
Fibonacci Count
scalper
fibonacci
1
-1
2
low
no
stock futures
1 min
no
$195
Trend Line
scalper
technical
1
1
n/a
medium
no
stock futures
5 min
no
$195
Scalper
scalper
technical MACD
1
1
n/a
medium
no
stock futures
1 min
yes
$195
Push
scalper
technical ADX
1
0 to 1
n/a
medium
no
stock futures
1 min
yes
$195
Candle Count
scalper
candlestick bars
1
1
3
medium
a little
stock futures
1 min
no
$195
Arc
scalper
fibonacci arcs
1
1.5
n/a
medium
a little
stock futures
5 min
no
$195
Gem
scalper
relative strength
1
1
n/a
medium
no
stock futures
1 min
yes
$195
Tech I
semi swing
technical ADX
2 to 3
0 to 2
n/a
medium
no
stock futures
1 min
yes
$195
Tech II
semi swing
technical MACD
2 to 3
0 to 2
n/a
medium
no
stock futures
1 min
yes
$195
Moving Average
swing
moving averages
2
2 or less
n/a
low
no
stock futures
1 min
yes
$195
RSI
scalper
relative strength
1
1
3
medium
no
stock futures, corn, cattle
1 min
yes
$295
Trend
swing/position
moving averages
 2-10
0 to 2
n/a
low
no
stock futures
5 min
yes
$395
Blaster
swing
magnetic activity
20
10
n/a
very low
no
stock futures, options, funds
daily
no
$495
WEF
swing
berg timer
15
0-10 trail
30 2x in 12 yrs
very low
no
futures, options, funds
daily
no
$995

The four systems below are the two best day trading systems and the two best swing trading systems I've developed.  They are the best in terms of reliability, draw down, profitability, and ease of use.

Berg's Arc II Day Trading System --- developed February, 2017

I've been working with Fibonacci Arcs for about six years now and developed a unique adjusment to my Arc I System for the best day trading ever.  The Fib Arcs are a common technical indicator available on most all trading platforms including OpenECry.com, Tradestation, Multicharts, Tradesignal, and NinjaTrader.

You simply place the Fib Arc onto a price chart as directed.  And then Buys and Sells are indicated when price interacts with the Arc according to the instructions.  There is no judgment involved, it is totally objective.  It works in all major markets including Bonds, Currencies, Metals, Oil, and Grains.

It is a day trading system with profit target of +1 and stop of -1 on the ES.  It has up to about 25 signals a day.  It's in the 86% reliablity area.  

Below is one week's trading results.  Yes, wow!

It netted 86 ES points on 100 trades (86% reliability) for a gain of $3,800 per contract, including commissions.  
That profit is more than 7 times the cost of the system.


Below are some of the signals themselves.

It's the most reliable and easiest to trade system I've ever made or seen.
Price:  $495 by wire, check, money order, Zelle, or Western Union online.  
WU website:  https://www.westernunion.com/us/en/send-money/app/start

See new Propel System below to upgrade the Arc II to a great swing trading system for only $100.

Good trading!
Larry Berg  


Berg's Arc II Day Trading System Becomes the New Propel System --- May 2018

The Arc II System has been good at getting its +1 point a day.  So I wondered what would happen if I used the MACD Trend Following indicator instead of the ADX Oscillator.

Of course!  It turned into a great trend following system.  

Its strongest day over the last two months was +21 points, yep, 21 points.  That's $945 per contract.  One and a half times the cost of the system in a day.  

Other nice days in the last two months went +16 pts, +13, +11, +8, +7 (four times), +6, and +4 (four times).

The stop is -2 points.  It follows with a trailing stop to +3.

Most days are finished by Noon.  This new Propel System is available for $595.

See below performance chart and feel free to reply with any questions.


Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Profitable results are not guaranteed.
Returns are not accepted since it's impossible to return intellectual property. 
Inquiry and sales information is never shared or sold.   


Berg's Relative Strength Index System ---  developed July, 2015

A simple, easy to apply, profitable, reliable day trading system.   

This system has been in and out of development by me for some 25 years.  Now it's finished.
It's overall profitability is the best I've seen.  And it works equally well with the soft commodities, metals, and currencies.  No judgment involved.

Target is +1 point with stop of -1.  Very low drawdown.  Seven to 15 signals per day, usually around ten.  Reliability is in the 75% area.  
The cost is $495.  It makes twice that per week.

I like to trade taking just one point every day.  That may sound silly but it only takes less than an hour and makes 20 to 26% a week on your money.
Taking just one point a day and reinvesting profits makes $61,000 in four months.



Relative Strength Index System  ---  Upgrade May 23, 2016

The RSI System has been improved using the Least Square Moving Average in the entry.  
Over the period of a month this change results in 17 fewer winners and 61 fewer losers.  That's net +$2,590 more per contract.  And less trading necessary.

The chart below shows performance over a month using the original entry and with the new LS assisted entry.  Losers are cut down big time.

Below see how the upgrade reduces the number of losers.

Owners can upgrade their RSI System for a fee of $75.  The cost for the RSI System is $495.

Good trading!
Larry Berg

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Profitable results are not guaranteed.
Returns are not accepted since it's impossible to return intellectual property.
Inquiry and sales information is never shared or sold.


The WEF System --- developed March 2013  

Using the Berg Timer to trade stocks, options, index futures, and mutual funds

This system is based on the Berg Timer.  It is the first trading system I developed, in 1984, with several improvements since.  A very good position-type trading system.  High reliability and very good profit/loss ratio. Winners make +15 points, losers -10.  Although they are overnight positions they rarely last more than 5 days, mostly 1-3 days.

Signals are generated when daily BT hits a certain strength.  No interpretation necessary.  Completely objective.
No screen watching.  You'll know exactly when you'll be putting on a position months in advance.
Precise entry, exit, and stop loss instructions.  Profit target is +15.00 points, stop loss is -10.00 S&P points.
Stop loss moved to break even when +7 is touched.
Cost of the system is $995, a little more than the profit on one futures trade.  
Any system improvements will be provided to owners free of charge.  But it's been working as-is since introduced.
As a bonus you'll also receive the 96% reliable Pocket Change Trade. It makes 10 extra S&P points a year.

Performance
Below are the results of trading the WEF System with the S&P Futures from 2000 to 2005.  The small gains/losses are trades that were reversed with an opposite signal.

Microsoft Excel Chart

2000
S&P
pts
2001
S&P
pts
2002
S&P pts
2003
S&P
pts
2004
S&P
pts
2005
S&P
pts
2006
S&P
pts
Buy Jan 3
-10
Buy Jan 8
+15
Sell Jan 15
+15
Buy Jan 2
+15
Buy Jan 23
+15
Buy Jan 7
+0
Sell Jan 17
+0
Sell Jan 21
+15
Buy Jan 12
+15
Sell Jan 18
+15
Sell Jan 31
+15
Sell Jan 30
-10
Buy Jan 14
+0
Buy Jan 20
+0
Buy Feb 14
+15
Buy Feb 28
-10
Sell Jan 23
-10
Buy Feb 26
+15
Buy Feb 13
+0
Buy Jan 21
-10
Sell Jan 30
+15
Sell Feb 29
-10
Sell Mar 9
+15
Buy Feb 1
-10
Buy Mar 14
+15
Buy Mar 3
+15
Sell Feb 4
-10
Sell Feb 17
-10
Sell Mar 13
+15
Buy Mar 23
+15
Sell Mar 21
+15
Buy Apr 1
+15
Buy Mar 16
+15
Sell Feb 24
-10
Buy Mar 21
-10
Sell Mar 17
+15
Buy Mar 30
+15
Sell Mar 28
+15
Sell Apr 17
-10
Sell Apr 12
+15
Buy Mar 10
+0
Buy Apr 18
+15
Sell Mar 24
+15
Sell Apr 2
+15
Buy Apr 24
-10
Sell Apr 23
+0
Buy Jun
-10
Sell Mar 18
+0
Buy Apr 28
+15
Buy May 22
+15
Sell Apr 30
+15
Buy May 16
+0
Buy May 1
+15
Buy Jul 1
-10
Buy Apr 1
+15
Buy May 4
+0
Buy May 26
+15
Buy May 9
+15
Buy Jun 7
+15
Sell May 21
-10
Sell Jul 13
+15
Buy Jun 6
+0
Sell May 19
+15
Buy May 31
+15
Buy May 29
-10
Sell Jun 25
+15
Buy Jun 9
+15
Buy Jul 26
+15
Buy Jun 8
+0
Sell May 26
+15
Sell Jun 19
-10
Buy Jun 4
+15
Sell Jul 18
+15
Sell Jun 25
+15
Buy Aug 6
-10
Buy Jun 15
+15
Buy Jun 5
-10
Buy Jun 23
-10
Buy Jun 12
+15
Buy Aug 1
-10
Buy Jul 17
+3
Sell Aug 27
+0
Sell Jul 21
-3
Buy Jun 16
+0
Buy Jul 27
+0
Sell Jun 13
+15
Sell Aug 20
-10
Sell Jul 22
-10
Buy Sep 28
+15
Buy Jul 26
+4
Sell Jul 3
+15
Buy Aug 11
+15
Buy Jun 25
-10
Buy Aug 28
+0
Sell Jul 28
+15
Buy Oct 1
+15
Sell Jul 28
+15
Buy Aug 11
+15
Sell Sep 25
+15
Buy Jul 17
+15
Buy Sep 6
+15
Buy Aug 4
+15
Buy Oct 25
+15
Buy Aug 8
+15
Buy Aug 28
+7
Sell Oct 27
-10
Buy Jul 30
+15
Sell Sep 17
+15
Sell Aug 15
-10
Sell Dec 6
+0
Sell Sep 1
-1
Sell Sep 5
+15
Buy Nov 1
+15
Buy Aug 15
-10
Sell Oct 1
-10
Sell Aug 20
+8
Sell Dec 23
+15
Buy Sep 2
+15
Sell Sep 8
+0
Sell Nov 7
-10
Sell Aug 27
+15
Buy Oct 29
+15
Buy Aug 22
+15
Buy Sep 15
+0
Sell Sep 29
+0
Buy Nov 9
-10
Buy Sep 10
+0
Sell Oct 31
+15
Sell Aug 28
-10
Sell Oct 7
+15
Sell Oct 25
-10
Buy Nov 17
-10
Sell Sep 21
-10
Buy Nov 29
+15
Sell Oct 16
+15
Sell Oct 24
-1
Sell Nov 10
-10
Sell Nov 28
+15
Buy Oct 9
+15
Sell Dec 11
+15
Sell Oct 22
+15
Buy Oct 25
+0
Buy Nov 29
+15
Sell Nov 2
-10
Buy Dec 13
+15
Sell Oct 28
-10
Sell Nov 4
-10
Buy Dec 15
-10
Buy Dec 3
+15
Buy Dec 16
+8
Sell Nov 28
-10
Buy Nov 16
+15
Buy Dec 27
-10
Buy Dec 20
+15
Sell Dec 17
+15
Sell Dec 12
-10
Sell Nov 25
+15
Buy Dec 29
+0
Buy Dec 31
+15
Buy Dec 27
-10
Buy Dec 31
+15
Buy Dec 15
-10
Sell Dec 23
+15
60% wins
75% wins
70% wins
67% wins
77% wins
56% wins
59% wins
Net +100 pts.
Net +210 pts.
Net +163 pts
Net +141 pts.
Net +110 pts.
Net +84 pts.
Net +72 pts.
+$25,000
+$52,500
+$40,750
+$35,250
+$27,500
+$21,000
+$18,000

2007
S&P
pts
2008
S&P
pts
2009
S&P
pts
2010
S&P
pts
2011
S&P
pts
2012
S&P
pts
2013
S&P
pts
Sell Jan 17
+15
Sell Jan 15
-10
Sell Jan 5
+15
Buy Jan 13
+0
Buy Jan 5
+15
Buy Jan 13
+15
Sell Jan 3
+0
Buy Feb 9
+15
Sell Feb 22
+0
Buy Jan 14
-10
Sell Jan 29
+15
Sell Feb 1
-10
Buy Jan 25
+0
Buy Jan 8
+15
Sell Mar 9
+15
Sell Mar 11
+0
Buy Feb 20
-10
Sell Feb 2
+15
Buy Feb 24
-10
Sell Feb 9
+15
Sell Jan 17
-10
Buy Mar 19
+15
Buy Apr 11
+15
Buy Mar 6
+0
Sell Feb 10
+0
Sell Mar 28
+0
Sell Feb 29
+15
Buy Jan 31
+15
Buy Apr 27
-10
Buy May 9
+15
Sell Mar 16
-10
Sell Feb 19
+15
Buy Apr 1
+0
Sell Mar 9
-10
Sell Feb 1
+15
Sell May 10
+0
Buy May 16
+15
Buy Mar 18
+15
Buy Mar 23
+15
Sell Apr 18
+15
Buy Apr 13
+15
Buy Feb 8
+15
Buy Jun 5
-10
Sell Jun 9
+15
Sell Mar 27
+15
Buy May 3
-10
Buy Apr 28
+15
Buy Apr 20
-10
Buy Mar 5
+15
Sell Jun 19
+15
Sell Jun 20
+15
Buy Apr 2
+15
Buy Jun 1
-10
Buy May 6
+15
Buy May 4
+0
Buy Mar15
-10
Buy Jul 6
+0
Sell Jul 8
+15
Buy May 12
+0
Buy Jun 17
+15
Sell May 18
+15
Sell May 22
+15
Buy Mar 27
+15
Sell Jul 13
+15
Buy Jul 25
-10
Sell May 19
+15
Sell Jun 24
+15
Sell Jun 1
+15
Sell Jun 5
-10
Buy Apr 4
+0
Sell Aug 17
+15
Buy Jul 29
+15
Buy May 28
+15
Buy Aug 12
+15
Buy Jun 7
+0
Sell Jun 11
+15
Sell Apr 26
-10
Buy Sep 7
-10
Sell Aug 15
+15
Buy Jun 23
+15
Buy Aug 19
-10
Buy Jun 10
+15
Sell Jun 19
+0
Buy Jun 5
-10
Sell Oct 12
+15
Sell Aug 22
+15
Buy Jul 10
+15
Sell Aug 26
+15
Buy Jun 24
+15
Buy Jun 28
+15
Buy Jun 12
+0
Sell Nov 5
+0
Buy Sep 12
-10
Buy Jul 23
+15
Sell Sep 3
+15
Buy Aug 22
+15
Buy Jul  20
-10
Buy July 1
+0
Sell Nov 13
-10
Sell Sep 17
+15
Buy Aug 11
+0
Buy Sep 15
+15
Sell Aug 16
+15
Buy Aug 14
+15
Buy Aug 6
-10
Buy Nov 23
+15
Buy Oct 3
-10
Sell Aug 17
+15
Sell Sep 20
+15
Sell Sep 23
-10
Sell Aug 24
+15
Sell Aug 16
+15
Sell Dec 13
-10
Sell Oct 21
+15
Buy Sep 17
+0
Sell Sep 27
+0
Sell Oct 27
+15
Sell Aug 31
+0
Sell Aug 23
+15
Sell Dec 21
-10
Sell Nov 7
-10
Sell Oct 2
-10
Sell Oct 5
-10
Sell Nov 4
+0
Buy Sep 19
+0
Buy Sep 13
+15
Buy Nov 26
+15
Buy Oct 13
+15
Buy Oct 27
+15
Sell Dec 9
+15
Sell Sep 28
+0
Sell Oct 2
+15
Buy Dec 16
+15
Sell Oct 19
-10
Buy Nov 30
+15
Buy Dec 30
+15
Sell Oct 22
+15
Sell Oct 17
+0
Buy Dec 30
+15
Sell Dec 14
+15
Sell Dec 13
+0
Sell Dec 3
+15
Sell Nov 11
+0
Sell Dec 31
+15
Buy Dec 30
+15
Sell Dec 20
+15
60% wins
74% wins
72% wins
78% wins
81% wins
75% wins
67% wins
Net +75 pts.
Net +160 pts.
Net +145 pts.
Net +170 pts.
Net +165 pts.
Net +140 pts.
Net +100 pts.

2014
S&P
pts
2015
S&P
pts
2016
S&P
pts
Buy Jan 3
+0
Buy Jan 12
-10
Buy Jan 8
+0
Buy Jan 10
-10
Jan 30
TBD,M
Sell Feb 9
+15
Sell Feb 11
-10
Buy Feb 5
+5
Buy Mar 7
+0
Sell Feb 20
+0
Feb 12
TBD,M
Buy Apr 6
+0
Buy Mar 3
-10
Sell Apr 27
+15
Buy Mar 21
+0
Sell May 22
+15
Buy Apr 7
+0
Sell Jun 3
+15
Buy Apr 25
+0
Buy Jun 25
-10
Buy May 9
+15
Buy July 2
-10
May 30
TBD,M
Buy July 22
-10
Buy Jun 13
+15
Sell Aug 14
+0
Buy July 3
+0
Aug 24
TBD,M
Sell Aug 29
+0
Sell Aug 28
+15
Buy Sep 15
+15
Sep 18
TBD,M
Sell Oct  6
+15
Sell Oct 9
+15
Oct 17
TBD,C
Buy Nov 12
-10
Buy Oct 30
+15
Sell Nov 27
+0
Buy Nov 8
-10
Sell Dec 16
+0
Sell Dec 12
+15
Sell Dec 22
-10
60% wins
55% wins
% wins
Net +50 pts. preliminary
Net +30 pts.
preliminary
Net + pts.

"TBD" means that result needs to be checked with tick data.

Microsoft Excel Chart

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Profitable results are not guaranteed.
Returns are not accepted since it's impossible to return intellectual property.
Inquiry and sales information is never shared or sold.


The Berg Blaster ---  developed April 2005

Using Actual Geomagnetic Activity to trade stock market swings 

Actual geomagnetic activity correlates with longer-term stock market swings.  When geomagnetism hits a certain strength, the market almost always declines about 20 S&P points. Below are shown all signals produced by this indicator over the 2004/5 period.  In order to trade it, all you have to do is look at a free webpage once a day to see if the parameters are met for a signal.  If so, you then put on your position at next day's opening.  That's all there is to it.
This very simple system netted +$11,450 per Emini futures contract during this period.  It's been backtested three years with consistent results.  
Blaster signals would also be very useful for the timing of stock and mutual fund sales, and the buying of put options and bearish spreads.  
Berg Blaster instructions cost just $495, half the profit on one signal.  Precise entry, exit and stop instructions are provided.


Note that this strategy to Sell after strong geomagnetic activity is consistent with the findings of a Working Paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta titled "Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market" written by Krivelyova and Robotti in 2003 (whose study uses data going back 70 years) wherein it concludes:

"Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically
significant effect on the following week's stock returns for all U.S. stock market indices."

This chart from their study (link below providing entire paper) shows stock market returns on normal days (blue) and on days following geomagnetic storms (brown).  This lends strong support for the validity of the Berg Blaster signals.

chart source from the Federal Bank of Atlanta: https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/publications/wp/2003/03_05.aspx
or if that doesn't load try this:  http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=375702
or if you still can't get it email me and I'll send you a copy.

Blaster Signal example

The March 11, 2011 geomagnetic storm generated a Berg Blaster signal.
By the end of the next trading day it made its +20 point target (+$1,000 per contract).



Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Profitable results are not guaranteed.
Returns are not accepted since it's impossible to return intellectual property.
Inquiry and sales information is never shared or sold.


He who hesitates is lost.
Joseph Addison's play Cato (1712)
Trading Tips 

Trade It! --- That may sound odd but most system buyers don't actually trade the system they've purchased. They're just curious or use it to help in some other system or strategy.  
Be Patient --- Wait patiently for the signals.  It's a job not an adventure.  Realize that waiting IS the job.  You are making $200 to $300 an hour to wait.  So wait!  It sounds easy but it's the hardest part of successful trading.  Do NOT miss any signals.
Be Accurate --- Only take trades that agree with ALL parameters of the system.  Don't think you can squeeze out a good trade from an "almost" good signal.  If you are bored and want some excitement you are in the wrong business.
Prepare --- Make sure all your trading applications are up and running correctly.  Enter an "away from the market" order on your trading platform to make sure it is working properly.
Avoid Complications --- Is it a Federal Reserve announcement day?  Is there a major news story that's affecting the markets? Is it holiday trading with very low volume?  Don't trade.
Have Confidence --- You've bought a good system with a good track record.  Maintain a positive mental attitude.  It will work if you follow the rules.
Be Persistent --- Don't quit!  It's a good system.  Keep trading through losses, especially through losses.
Be Objective --- Emotion . . . not good.  Be a machine . . . a money-making machine. Ignore exterior impulses.  Ignore your surroundings.  All you have to do is ask yourself if the price action meets the signal requirements then execute.
Be Cautious --- Don't be afraid that you'll miss a trade or be too slow.  It's better to miss a trade than to carelessly enter a position.  Be sure that all of the system's parameters are met before entering an order.
It's an Investment --- This is an investment of your time and money.  It's NOT gambling with 50:50 odds.  If you're looking for fun you should go to Vegas.  Good systems give you odds of at least 60:40.  It's a business.
Use Blinders --- Is your other favorite technical indicator contrary to the signal?  Is it Friday the 13th?  Is the moon in Leo? Don't pay attention to any other indicators.  Concentrate on the task at hand.  
Just Trade The System


Avoid 'Whew' Psychology

     After taking a position you watch it, tick by tick, go against you.  And then when it finally turns around and gets back to break even you exit quickly and proclaim, "Whew, I got out of that one alive!".  
     You exit a perfectly good trade which did not hit your stop.  Your profit objective would have been met had you stayed in the trade.
     It's possible to prevent this from happening.  In order to prevent this you must ask yourself this when you consider getting out.
     "Have I paid my dues.  Have I paid the price for staying with this trade?".  
     If yes, you owe it to yourself to stay with your trade.  Let it work for you.  Don't second guess a position.  Stay with it.  
     That's part of the job.

It's Ok To Win

     I'm not going to win.  This may sound funny, but many traders subconsciously think this.  So they fail to win.  They constantly fail because they feel that it's too good to be true, to win making possibly large sums of money at such a simple endeavor as trading.
     Yes, we're not doing rocket science here, or discovering a cure for cancer.  But trading DOES have value.
     Trading may not be the most socially responsible thing we will do in our lifetimes, but it can certainly have many great consequences.  It can help pay for food, for rent, or for retirement or charity.  
     Take your best shot.  Hang in there.  You are worthy of its rewards.  You deserve it.  And it It does have value.  It means being tough, brave, disciplined, patient, determined, even selfish.  Because, in the end, it does have purpose and value.  It's Ok to win.



Free website hit counter