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Helping you in your weather and forecasting needs

The Yearly Berg Timer values from year 300 to 2100

Berg Timer Calculation Software - Calculates Berg Timer 8-hour, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly values for any year.

How To Find Out the Probability for Any State's Temperature or Precipitation, Any Day, Any Year

Further below are each state's Precipitation and Temperature Profiles. They can be used to forecast the likelihood for Precipitation and Temperature for any state, any day, using the Berg Timer Software.

Use the table below to calculate if any future or past day, anywhere in the U.S., had or will have a high or above average probability for precipitation or extreme high, low, or average temperature.

For instance, if July 4, 2020 in Alabama is the day that you want to forecast, you start by using the BT software to calculate the Berg Timer for the year 2020. Then look at July 4 in the spreadsheet provided and find out if July 4, 2020 is 9 days before a BT day of 10, a day when BT is 7 or more in strength. If so,then you can look in the table below in the Alabama line, that day -9 has a red '1', meaning that there is a high probability for rain on July 4, 2020. You can do the same for temperature by referring again to the Profile for Alabama, or any other state, and see if July 4, 2020, which is 9 days before 0, has an extreme high or low in its Temperature Profile on July 4. You can see in the Alabama Profile that 9 days before 0 has a semi-high peak in the temperature profile, so July 4, 2020 in Alabama should be a little warmer than normal with a high probability for rain. Put up the umbrellas and let your friends wonder how you knew it would rain before the weather forecasters.

The (1's) are major peaks and the (2's) are minor peaks of each state's Precipitation Profile. The -12 to 12 are the number of days before/after a Profile's '0' day, a day when the daily Berg Timer is greater than 7 strength.
	-12	-11	-10	-9	-8	-7	-6	-5	-4	-3	-2	-1	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Alabama			1	1					1				1					2			1
Alaska		2					1				1			2						1					1
Arizona						1			2							1								2
Arkansas				2				1	1			2								2
California N.							2	1					2	2										2
California S.								2						1						1	1
Colorado							1			1				1								2		2
Connecticut					1						2				2					1		1	2
Delaware					1		1	2		1	1								1
Florida N.	1				1					1	2				1	1		1
Florida S.	1			2										2		2			1				2		1
Georgia					2				2	1				1	2			1				2
Hawaii	1	1	1		2							2	1	2	1						2
Idaho				1	1	1					1				2									2	1
Illinois			2	1				1		1			2		2					2					1
Indiana			2	1				2	1	2							2			2
Iowa	2	1			2		2			1					1	2		2
Kansas					1		1	1						1										2
Kentucky		2		1				2	1							2	2			1	2		2
Louisiana			2		2			2	1									1				2	2
Maine	2		1			2					2	1			1	2	2			1			2
Maryland					1		1	2		1	1								1
Massachusetts			2		1				2							1				1			1
Michigan				1						2	1						1				2
Minnesota		1		2				2								1
Mississippi	1		2	2								2						2		1	1
Missouri				2			2	2	1					1						1				2
Montana				2	1	2		2							1				2	2
Nebraska	1					2	1	2						1			2			2		2
Nevada			2	1	2				2		1			2				2						1	1
New hampshire			1		2	2	1	2	2		2				2	1							1	2
NewJersey	2				1		2		2		1									1		2	2
NewMexico		1			1	1					1			2			2	1				2	1
NewYork					1			2	1		2				2				2	1		1	2
North Dakota		1			1			1				1			2				2		2				1
NorthCarolina	1				1					2									1			2			1
Ohio			2	1				1		2				2			2	1			1		2
Oklahoma		2		2					1						1				2	1					2
Oregon				1				2		1			2		2			1			2
Pennsylvania					1		1	2				2							1			1
Rhode Island					1						2				2					1		1	2
South Carolina						1				2								1	1
South Dakota			1			2	1			2					1	2					1				2
Tennessee	2			1	2				1	2		2					1			1
Texas E.					1				1	2			2	2	2		2	1					2	2
Texas W.				2	1			1	2					1								1	2
Utah			2	1	2						1								2	2				1	1
Vermont			1		2	2	1	2	2		2				2	1							1	2
Virginia		2			1	2	2			1			2						1		1	2			2
Washington				2	1				1				1		2			2			2			2
WestVirginia			2	1	2					1			2					2			1	2
Wisconsin				1						1	2					1	2			2
Wyoming				1			1								1				1	2				2	1
Key West	1	2				1				2				2	1	2			2		1
USA				2	2	1			2	2	1				1	2			1	2	1

See 49-day extended Delays profile on the home page in the 9/22/2020 entry.

U.S. STATES' PROFILES

Alabama	Florida	Kentucky	Mississippi	New Mexico	Pennsylvania	Vermont
Alaska	Georgia	Louisiana	Missouri	New York	Rhode Island	Virginia
Arizona	Hawaii	Maine	Montana	North Carolina	South Carolina	Washington
Arkansas	Idaho	Maryland	Nebraska	North Dakota	South Dakota	West Virginia
California	Illinois	Massachusetts	Nevada	Ohio	Tennessee	Wisconsin
Colorado	Indiana	Michigan	New Hampshire	Oklahoma	Texas	Wyoming
Connecticut	Iowa	Minnesota	NewJersey	Oregon	Utah
Delaware	Kansas		Key West	United States

Airline Delays

For airline delays you would check Dallas, New York, and/or Chicago profiles since extreme weather in any of the major hubs will cause delays everywhere.

But an easier way is to just look at the Airline Delays profile below. See that Airline Delays peaks during the 9 days prior to when BT is equal to 7 strength or above (day '0'). That's a good reason not to fly in the week before and including strong BT, the '0' day. Four days after day '0' is the lowest delay time period.

There was a huge delay on Sunday November 25, 2018 due to a winter storm. That day was a -4 day according to the Table of Profile Numbers and was known infinitely early. Thousands could have avoided that delay by using BT to plan their travel dates.

Update October 11, 2021 . . . A Southwest Airline cancelled at least 1,800 flights over the weekend of October 9 to 10 and continued into Monday with over 2000 flights cancelled, citing “disruptive weather” and air traffic control issues. This is all happening 4 to 6 days prior to the huge BT = 18 strength on October 15. Wow! You can see in the profiles below that 4 to 9 days before a strong BT day, day "0", is the "sweet spot" for both U.S. Precipitation and Airline Delays. The BT profiles work.

Note --- It has been reported that many airline employees taking sick leave in response to covid vacinnation requirements has also added to the disruption of airline traffic.

Delays data source: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/ONTIME/Airline.aspx

Weather data source: (very accurate) http://www.frontierweather.com/weatherdatastore.html

Days' probability for Airline Delays ---

High: -11 -9 -8 -7 -6 -4 -3 -2 0 9 10 Average: -12 -5 -1 1 5 6 7 11 12 Low: -10 2 3 4 8

A very good comparison between Airline Delays and U.S. Precipitation. One indice confirmed by another is a great thing to see.

If you can arrange it, don't fly in the nine days preceeding a Berg Timer day with strength of 7 or above.

The Berg Timer Precipitation Forecast Maps

answering ‘When’s it gonna rain?’

(and what are the best days to fly?)

by Larry Berg

www.justgoodtiming.com

weather results charts courtesy of:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/

“Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.”

Charles Dudley Warner, but generally credited to his friend, Mark Twain. The Hartford Courant, August 27, 1897

Daily forecasts (blue) & results (greenyelloworange)

The Berg Timer is based on planetary positions. So the BT forecasts are known infinitely into the future with no loss of reliability.

How are these forecasts made? Daily precipitation data was accumulated for 2 to 6 locations in each state, depending on the state's size, for 217 U.S. cities from 2006 to 2017. Then the daily data was averaged for each state and pasted into my profiler spreadsheet which then automatically displays the profile chart for each state (like the ones shown in the page above). A state's profile shows its historical precipitation in relation to strong Berg Timer days, days '7' strength or higher.

Based on each state's profile and the Berg Timer for a particular future day they're mapped and published.

The maps are quite accurate because planetary positions, as represented by BT, have empirically been proven to be highly representative of Earth weather changes.

You'll often notice the blue areas noticeably moving across the U.S. from west to east, accurately forecasting the weather fronts and even isolated pockets of weather that pop up out of nowhere.

That's all there is to it. Stay dry!

Daily precipitation maps have been discontinued due to time constraints. Above on this page are instructions on how to make a precipitation map for your desired time and place.

Announcements of published future maps will be made on the home page at "Click for latest comments or research" link.

Regards,

Larry.

***Holiday maps have been added below from December 20 to the end of the year.

Looks like stormy weather will be moving into the Northwest on December 22. Then moving east into the upper Midwest by December 24-25, then fizzles out in the Northeast on the 27th. Then another system develops in Nebraska area and moves east covering the whole East Central area from north to south by year end. Slippery New Year there!

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Due to low Berg Timer values, there are no precipitation maps between September 21 and October 14.

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* There are no strong Berg Timer days within the 12 day window from July 26 to 29 so no forecast maps during that time.

Airline Delay category is then Low.

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Tornadoes

In the U.S., Tornadoes are most often the result of strong low pressure fronts that move out of the Rocky Mountains into middle America, pulling up warm air from the south which combines with the cool atmospheric precipitates to form strong updrafting tornadoes.

As the Tornado Profile below shows, they occur most often six days before strong BT, when the daily Berg Timer is greater than or equal to '7' strength. A secondary peak occurs exactly on strong BT days, day |'0' in the profile. Of course this is only during the Spring to Autumn months of the year and in the continental U.S. east of the Rocky Mountains. To find the most likely tornado days you need daily BT values. Price and purchase info is available in the Products page.

tornado data source: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center and https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html