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Your Page for The Berg Timer Indicator
Helping you in your weather, market, flight delay forecasting needs

See the Berg Timer U.S. Precipitation Maps Here

11/25/2018 - BT profile for N. California peaked Fri/Sat Nov. 23-24, correctly forecasting the 1-7 inch total precip expected for that area.  Good job BT!
11/26/2018 - The profile for Travel Delays peaked on day -4 which is on Sunday, November 25 the exact day for very high travel delays due to a blizzard.  Here a quote from ABC News: "Travelers going in and out of some Midwestern cities this Sunday are experiencing flight delays and cancellations on one of the busiest travel days of the year, with 15 states under a weather alert due to winter storm and blizzard warnings.".  Also, the United States Precipitation profile peaks on -4.  Those two profiles together screamed "don't travel now".
 
Below is how the precipitation weather maps are constructed.  Skip this and take me directly to the weather maps.

Berg Timer Profile Days --- How to get the future weather for your desired location.

Peaks in a state's precipitation profile indicate a higher probability for precipitation in the state.  Profile lows indicate low probability.
Peaks in a state's temperature profile indicate a higher probability for temperature above normal in the state.  Bottoms indicate temperature lower than normal.

Let's say you want to know if it'll rain in New York State on September 20.  You would go to the Table of Profile Numbers (below) and find the numbers for September 20.  Let's say they are -11, -6, -1, 6, 9.  Then you would consult the New York State profile, shown below, to see if it peaks on any of the Table Number days.  Yes, the NY profile peaks on '9'.  So there's a pretty good chance that it will rain in New York on September 20.  That's it.

If you refer to a certain profile often you can write down the profile's numbers to keep handy.  They never change.  Then you would only have to check the Table to find when your profile numbers show up in the future.


State Profiles

The profiles for the 50 states are available below.  California has been divided into north/south, Texas into east/west, and Florida into north/south.  Key West and the United States are also available there at the end.

Most weather fronts move from northwest to southeast in the United States, starting in the extreme northwest, through the Rockies to the central states, sometimes moving all the way to the east coast taking several days.  Fronts can also move up from the Gulf in the summer months causing extreme rain storms and some tornadoes.

In the winter we see fronts starting down from Canada moving the cold air as far down as north Florida.  
Geography of course also plays a role in U.S. climate.  The southwest states are generally dry so their profiles for precipitation mean 'best chance' for precipitation.

It takes several days for fronts to move from the northwest to the southeast, if they do reach the southeast.  If you scroll down to the Nebraska and Missouri profiles you'll notice that the precipitation profile for Nebraska peaks and bottoms a day or two ahead of Missouri.  That demonstrates the movement of fronts across the U.S. and is a proof for the Berg Timer profiles' accuracy and validity.  I've always tried my best to find the most accurate and complete data for my work.  Accuracy is always most important.  For these state profiles I used frontierweather.com which has the most accurate and complete data I could find for the U.S. states.

You can test the reliability of a profile for yourself by looking at the U.S. weather map at the bottom of weather.com's home page to see where it's raining.  Then note the numbers for today in the table, then click on that state's profile below to see if any of the profile's peaks match the date's numbers in the table.  You'll find it's quite reliable.  International locations will be added.  

The Berg Timer & BT Profile Numbers for Weather and Travel Forecasting

BT for the next couple months are published here.  I hope this helps because I know some or you have your own unique uses for it.  The owners of the WEF trading system use it for determining its trading signals.  
Days in red are when BT >= 7 strength.  If planning airline travel be sure to get the BT Profile Numbers from the table below (they're the ones in black) for your expected travel dates and then consult the Airline Travel Delays profile chart just below the Table to see if your travel day numbers are in the high probability levels for travel delay.  The numbers for highest probability of delay are 0 to -9 and positive 9 and 10.

 Microsoft Excel Chart 
 Microsoft Excel Chart   

    THE BERG TIMER - Feb thru May, 2019            Table of Daily Berg Timer Profile Numbers

Apr-01
3
Jun-01
1
Mon
4/1
2
-2
Sat
6/1
-6
-2
-1
-8
Apr-02
3
Jun-02
9
Tue
4/2
3
-1
Sun
6/2
-5
-1
0
-7
Apr-03
12
Jun-03
7
Wed
4/3
4
0
Mon
6/3
-4
0
1
-6
Apr-04
0
Jun-04
4
Thu
4/4
5
1
Tue
6/4
-3
1
2
-5
Apr-05
0
Jun-05
1
Fri
4/5
6
2
Wed
6/5
-2
2
3
-4
Apr-06
2
Jun-06
2
Sat
4/6
7
3
Thu
6/6
-1
3
4
-3
Apr-07
0
Jun-07
14
Sun
4/7
8
4
Fri
6/7
0
4
5
-2
Apr-08
3
Jun-08
4
Mon
4/8
9
5
Sat
6/8
1
5
6
-1
Apr-09
6
Jun-09
8
Tue
4/9
10
6
Sun
6/9
2
6
7
0
Apr-10
0
Jun-10
3
Wed
4/10
11
7
Mon
6/10
3
7
8
1
Apr-11
2
Jun-11
0
Thu
4/11
12
8
Tue
6/11
4
8
9
2
Apr-12
2
Jun-12
1
Fri
4/12
9
Wed
6/12
5
9
10
3
Apr-13
2
Jun-13
1
Sat
4/13
10
-12
Thu
6/13
6
10
11
4
Apr-14
1
Jun-14
1
Sun
4/14
11
-11
Fri
6/14
7
11
12
5
Apr-15
3
Jun-15
5
Mon
4/15
12
-10
Sat
6/15
8
12
6
Apr-16
0
Jun-16
0
Tue
4/16
-9
Sun
6/16
9
7
Apr-17
0
Jun-17
0
Wed
4/17
-8
Mon
6/17
10
8
Apr-18
4
Jun-18
3
Thu
4/18
-7
Tue
6/18
11
9
Apr-19
2
Jun-19
2
Fri
4/19
-6
Wed
6/19
12
10
Apr-20
2
Jun-20
2
Sat
4/20
-5
Thu
6/20
11
Apr-21
1
Jun-21
0
Sun
4/21
-4
Fri
6/21
12
Apr-22
4
Jun-22
3
Mon
4/22
-3
Sat
6/22
Apr-23
0
Jun-23
3
Tue
4/23
-2
Sun
6/23
Apr-24
3
Jun-24
1
Wed
4/24
-1
Mon
6/24
Apr-25
8
Jun-25
3
Thu
4/25
0
Tue
6/25
Apr-26
2
Jun-26
2
Fri
4/26
-12
1
Wed
6/26
-12
Apr-27
2
Jun-27
1
Sat
4/27
-11
2
Thu
6/27
-11
Apr-28
1
Jun-28
0
Sun
4/28
-10
3
Fri
6/28
-10
Apr-29
5
Jun-29
1
Mon
4/29
-9
4
Sat
6/29
-9
Apr-30
2
Jun-30
0
Tue
4/30
-8
5
Sun
6/30
-8
May-01
0
Jul-01
3
Wed
5/1
-7
6
Mon
7/1
-7
-12
May-02
0
Jul-02
0
Thu
5/2
-6
7
Tue
7/2
-6
-11
May-03
3
Jul-03
3
Fri
5/3
-5
8
Wed
7/3
-5
-10
May-04
4
Jul-04
0
Sat
5/4
-4
9
Thu
7/4
-4
-9
May-05
3
Jul-05
0
Sun
5/5
-3
10
Fri
7/5
-3
-8
May-06
4
Jul-06
5
Mon
5/6
-2
11
Sat
7/6
-2
-7
May-07
1
Jul-07
0
Tue
5/7
-1
12
Sun
7/7
-1
-6
May-08
7
Jul-08
12
Wed
5/8
0
Mon
7/8
0
-5
May-09
4
Jul-09
1
Thu
5/9
1
Tue
7/9
1
-4
May-10
3
Jul-10
2
Fri
5/10
2
Wed
7/10
2
-3
May-11
4
Jul-11
4
Sat
5/11
3
Thu
7/11
3
-2
May-12
3
Jul-12
4
Sun
5/12
4
Fri
7/12
4
-1
May-13
1
Jul-13
10
Mon
5/13
5
Sat
7/13
5
0
May-14
0
Jul-14
2
Tue
5/14
6
Sun
7/14
6
1
May-15
0
Jul-15
1
Wed
5/15
7
Mon
7/15
7
2
May-16
3
Jul-16
2
Thu
5/16
8
Tue
7/16
8
3
May-17
0
Jul-17
3
Fri
5/17
9
Wed
7/17
9
4
May-18
1
Jul-18
2
Sat
5/18
10
Thu
7/18
10
5
May-19
2
Jul-19
1
Sun
5/19
11
Fri
7/19
11
6
May-20
6
Jul-20
0
Mon
5/20
12
Sat
7/20
12
7
May-21
3
Jul-21
3
Tue
5/21
-12
Sun
7/21
8
May-22
1
Jul-22
2
Wed
5/22
-11
-12
Mon
7/22
9
May-23
1
Jul-23
2
Thu
5/23
-10
-11
Tue
7/23
10
May-24
2
Jul-24
1
Fri
5/24
-9
-10
Wed
7/24
11
May-25
4
Jul-25
1
Sat
5/25
-8
-9
Thu
7/25
12
May-26
5
Jul-26
1
Sun
5/26
-12
-7
-8
Fri
7/26
May-27
0
Jul-27
1
Mon
5/27
-11
-6
-7
Sat
7/27
May-28
1
Jul-28
3
Tue
5/28
-10
-5
-6
-12
Sun
7/28
May-29
3
Jul-29
4
Wed
5/29
-9
-4
-5
-11
Mon
7/29
May-30
1
Jul-30
1
Thu
5/30
-8
-3
-4
-10
Tue
7/30
-12
May-31
3
Jul-31
1
Fri
5/31
-7
-2
-3
-9
Wed
7/31
-11
 
Use the table above to find out the weather in your area and also probable travel delays.  The Travel Delays Profile and all the state weather profiles are below.
For instance, if you are traveling on May 29 or 30 see above in the table that -9 and -8 occur on those days.  In the Airline Delays profile below the numbers -9 and -8 are the highest numbers in the chart.  So your chances for airline delays are very high for those days.


U.S. STATES' PROFILES


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Airline Delays

For airline delays you would check Dallas, New York, and/or Chicago profiles since extreme weather in any of the major hubs will cause delays everywhere.  

But an easier way is to just look at the Airline Delays profile below.  See that Airline Delays peaks during the 9 days prior to when BT is equal to 7 strength or above (day '0').  That's a good reason not to fly in the week before and including strong BT, the '0' day.  Four days after day '0' is the lowest delay time period.  
There was a huge delay on Sunday November 25, 2018 due to a winter storm.  That day was a -4 day according to the Table of Profile Numbers and was known infinitely early.  Thousands could have avoided that delay by using BT to plan their travel dates. 

Delays data source:  https://www.transtats.bts.gov/ONTIME/Airline.aspx  
Weather data source:  (very accurate) http://www.frontierweather.com/weatherdatastore.html
Days' probability for Airline Delays ---
High: -11 -9 -8 -7 -6 -4 -3 -2 0 9 10   Average: -12 -5 -1 1 5 6 7 11 12  Low: -10 2 3 4 8

 

A very good comparison between Airline Delays and U.S. Precipitation.  One indice confirmed by another is a great thing to see.
If you can arrange it, don't fly in the nine days preceeding a Berg Timer day with strength of 7 or above.  


The Berg Timer Precipitation Forecast Maps
answeringWhen’s it gonna rain?
(and what are the best days to fly?)

by Larry Berg
www.justgoodtiming.com

weather results charts courtesy of:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/



Paintbrush Picture
Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.
Charles Dudley Warner, but generally credited to his friend, Mark Twain.  The Hartford Courant, August 27, 1897


Daily forecasts (blue) & results (greenyelloworange)
The Berg Timer is based on planetary positions.  So the BT forecasts are known infinitely into the future with no loss of reliability.
Airline Delay probabilities are also published here.  High, Average, or Low
Or you can always do it yourself for future days not mapped yet on this page here.

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Starting today, Airline Delay probabilities will be published here.  High, Average, or Low
You can always do it yourself for future days not mapped yet on this page here.
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Kentucky is blue all weekend from Thursday through Sunday, correctly forecasting rain for the Kentucky Derby.
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                      No weather maps from February 21 to 25 due to the lack of strong Berg Timer values.
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  Weather looks Ok in Atlanta for the Super Bowl.  The Airline Delays profile is low on Feb 3 so that's good for travel.  But there will be delays Feb 2,4,5.

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Tornadoes

Tornadoes are most often the result of strong low pressure fronts that move out of the Rocky Mountains into middle America, pulling up warm air from the south which combines with the cool atmospheric precipitates to form strong updrafting tornadoes.
They occur most often exactly when the Berg Timer is greater than or equal to '7' strength.  Of course this is only during the Spring to Autumn months of the year and in the continental U.S. east of the Rocky Mountains.  To find the most likely tornado days you can refer to the BT day values listed above in this page.

tornado data source: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center




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